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Simon Wright OF+ Consulting

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Chocolate Sector Update

What is chocolate?

European law dictates that chocolate must consist of a mixture of cocoa and sugar. It states: “Chocolate designates the product obtained from cocoa products and sugars, which contains not less than 35 % total dry cocoa solids, including not less than 18% cocoa butter and not less than 14% of dry non-fat cocoa solids.”

Despite Brexit, for now the UK appears to be continuing to follow this legislation.

What is the market for chocolate in the UK?

 In September 2025 The Grocer noted that “across the board value growth for the UK’s top 10 chocolate brands isn’t the whole story here. Gains are chiefly down to price rises. Only five brands have sold more chocolate in the last year – M&M’s, Mini Eggs, Ferrero Rocher, KitKat and Maltesers.” The category has an 8.9% value gain but a 2.6% volume loss (NIQ). Rising costs have led to a downturn in NPD, although innovation such as the “hugely popular” Cadbury Dairy Milk with Lotus Biscoff and Lindt Lindor Mint Truffles have made a difference.

Premiumisation continues, with brands such as Tony’s and Hip outperforming the market. Another trend is smaller bar sizes to give a lower unit price point without compromise in quality.

What are the key trends in chocolate today?

 Darker, higher cocoa solids chocolates are increasingly finding favour with UK consumers, as are chocolates offering greater provenance – single origin (all cocoa coming from a single country) and even single estate (all cocoa coming from a single grower). More manufacturers are sourcing Fine Flavour Cocoa from the 23 countries that grow it, according to the International Cocoa Organisation’s somewhat arbitrary definition.

There has been an explosion of artisan bean-to-bar manufacturers in the UK, including brands such as Love Cocoa, Pump Street Bakery, Damson, York Cocoa Works, Duffy’s, The Cocoa Tree and Dormouse Chocolates. These companies produce a modest amount of chocolate in a highly hands-on way, hence their elevated price points. However, as they grow in size and become more efficient their products will become more affordable.

Another trend is tree-to-bar manufacturers that produce in the country where the cocoa is grown. Examples here are Hotel Chocolat (St Lucia), The Grenada Chocolate Company and Madécasse (Madagascar).

Increased interest in vegan and plant-based products has lead to many new brands launching (Moo Free, Nomo, HiP) as well as established brands adding dairy-free products (Galaxy, Lindt). Most recently Cadbury’s has announced a plant-based version of its iconic CDM. The value of free-from chocolate soared nearly 50%, from £37.6m to £55.2m (Nielsen IQ for the 52 weeks ending August 13th 2022)

Blonde chocolate – white chocolate made using caramelised milk – is coming up fast. Cadbury’s have brought their Caramilk brand to the UK from Australia. A myriad of own-label and branded lines have followed. Blonde chocolate over-indexes with all age group between 28 and 64, according to Kantar Worldpanel data. The success of the Dubai bar has prompted a raft of chocolate products containing pistachios.

Dark Milk is another trend. Although there is no legal definition, Dark Milk chocolates generally have a cocoa solids level of 40% or above. Cadbury’s and Galaxy have both launched branded versions whilst many supermarket top-tier ranges include at least one Dark Milk.

What are manufacturers doing to ensure their production is sustainable?

 The last decade has seen the major chocolate processors finally accept that they have some responsibility towards the cocoa farmers on whose products they depend. Initially there was widespread acceptance of independently verified schemes such as organic, Fairtrade, and Rainforest Alliance. More recently, large processors have sought to replace these independent schemes with their own in-house programmes such as Mondelez’s Cocoa Life and the Cocoa Horizons scheme from Barry Callebaut. How well consumers will accept these schemes remains to be seen. Rainforest Alliance recently announced a set of Regenerative Agriculture standards for coffee, with cocoa to follow.

The EU planned to introduce the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) but this has again been set back to December 30th 2026 (large companies) and June 2027 (SME’s). There is now concern that this legislation could be watered down to the point of being meaningless, or abandoned altogether.

Packaging materials are also coming under greater scrutiny with Galaxy moving to recyclable and compostable film. Smarties sharing blocks use new technology developed by Nestle to make the paper wrappers used both heat-sealable and recyclable.

What impact are health concerns having on the sector?

Chocolate is classified as both a UPF (Ultra Processed Food) and an HFSS (a food High in Fat, Sugar or Salt). Concerns about sugar have had a significant impact on chocolate’s fortunes, with makers under pressure to take action against childhood obesity. Public Health England (PHE) urged suppliers to reduce the level of sugar in products popular with youngsters, while health campaigners Action On Sugar have called for the 2018 soft drinks levy to extend to confectionery. PHE launched a campaign to encourage manufacturers to

  • Reformulate products to lower the levels of sugar present.
  • Reduce portion size, and/or the number of calories in single-serve products.
  • Shift consumer purchasing towards lower or no added sugar products.

This programme failed and In August 2020 the UK government announced that the PHE was being abolished. Commercially reduced-sugar products such as Nestle Wowsome and Cadbury’s Dairy Milk 30% Less Sugar have both proved to be commercially unsuccessful.

Restriction on the sale of chocolate as an HFSS

The restriction of HFSS products by location came into force on 1 October 2022. The Regulations ban the promotion of HFSS foods by their placement in key locations (store entrances, aisle ends and checkouts) when retail stores are over 185.8 square metres (or 2,000 square feet) and the equivalent key locations online. These restrictions apply to medium and large businesses (with 50 employees or more). A ban on adverts for HFSS food before 9pm and a sweeping ban on HFSS advertising are due to come into force on January 1st 2026.

The cost of cocoa

In the last 18 months heavy rains and drought have hit yields in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire – the world’s largest cocoa growers – and disease has wiped out 600k hectares of cocoa growing land in Ghana. The result is soaring cocoa prices. In January 2025 the World Bank quoted $12k per tonne, triple what is was a year earlier. Much of those higher prices are being passed onto shoppers. In take-home sales average price per pack is +13.2% (Worldpanel). Multipacks, blocks and sharing bags are +19%.

The response of manufacturers and retailers has been to reduce pack-sizes, lower the amount of cocoa solids in their recipes and explore alternatives to cocoa. The amount of cocoa butter in the coating used in White KitKats is now too low for the coating to be legally referred as chocolate. There are now a number of start-ups attempting to manufacture products that taste like chocolate but which are cocoa-free. Lab-grown cocoa is also being explored.

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