Those of you who have been around for a while will remember 2008-2009 as the annus horibilis of organics in the UK. Up until this point UK organic sales had shown healthy, double-digit growth peaking in 2007 at a shade under £2billion.
Then came the banking crisis and the resultant financial crash. The reflex action of most supermarkets was to give organics the boot. Some virtually eliminated their organic range: others drastically cut back. Sales plummeted – if consumers could not find organic lines, they could not buy them. The two exceptions were Ocado and Waitrose who kept faith with organics and as a result today both significantly overtrade relative to their overall market share.
It was not until 2017 that UK organic sales returned to the £2billion mark: pre-Corona in 2019 the sector was trading at around £2.45 billion per annum at retail.
Will history repeat itself ?
I think it less likely this time around and here’s why:
- The decision to purchase organic is increasingly based on scientific fact rather than woolly belief. I was working for a multiple retailer just before the 2008-9 crash and it was clear to me that many people were buying organic without really understanding the benefits. The new, young and totally digital consumers buying organic now are much better informed.
- Organic is the answer to so many consumer concerns, a safe place in a time of enormous uncertainty. At a time when staying healthy is crucial knowing you are avoiding pesticides and artificial ingredients makes a lot of sense.
- Supply chains have been completely rethought to promote local and sustainable sources: box schemes have blossomed and producers are selling direct to the public. This plays to organics key strengths of promoting local-sourcing and sustainability whilst reducing packaging use and food miles.
- Consumers are not so dependent on bricks-and-mortar supermarkets for organic food and drink as they were in 2008-9. Every year non-supermarket channels outperform the total organic market. The big winners in the current pandemic have been the likes of Abel & Cole, Riverford, Ocado and Milk & More, Their values of sustainable food delivered to your door will remain relevant for the foreseeable future.
- Organic food really delivers when you cook from scratch. And a lot of people are cooking more than ever before, as witnessed by hugely increased sales of eggs, flour and cooking chocolate!
So far, so good: Ecovia Intelligence say that thus far the Coronavirus pandemic has been positive for organic sales
However it would be irresponsible to ignore the economic recession that seems inevitable as incomes fall and unemployment rises. With consumer expenditure under pressure can we justify the organic premium? The key here is to ensure that we eat modest levels of meat, fish and dairy and a diet built around organic grains, pulses, fruit and vegetables (we could call it macrobiotics…)
And then we can say
- Yes to cooking more from scratch to save money, deliver healthier food and maximise flavour
- Yes to supporting local producers and independent retailers who have responded to the current challenge with such creativity
- Yes to reducing our carbon footprint by becoming more plant-based, reducing packaging and minimising food miles
- Yes to protecting our health by building our diet around products that do not contain pesticide residues or artificial ingredients
There are undoubtedly “bad times just around the corner” but for increasingly large numbers of people organic food and drink is not part of the problem, it is part of the solution.